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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • There are precedents. In October 1979, Paul Volcker, newly appointed as chair of the Federal Reserve, drove up interest rates to a remarkable 13% in a bid to tackle inflation, later raising them to 17%.

    Back then the problem was rampaging inflation and the (by-the-book) cure was raising interest rates to drive it down.

    Nowadays US inflation is not an issue (IIRC it’s like 2% or 3%) and tariffs are gonna bring it up in a confused effort to… rebuild a manufacturing industry? (I’m not sure that’s the goal - it’s hard to say what “great again” means precisely).

    In what way would 1979 be a precedent?

    Anyway… yes, assuming Trump’s goal is to have more manufacturing in the US, tariffs will “work” - the point is how much that’s gonna cost (in quality of life, not dollars) and who’s gonna pay that price.