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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • Trump had threatened to impose 200 per cent tariffs on EU wine and spirits after Brussels warned that it would include bourbon as part of €26bn in goods it would hit with retaliatory duties in response to Washington’s levies on imports of steel and aluminium.

    One option is to have strong boycott/shame for buying US goods and weapons from US, but

    But the only way out, is for political rulers, not just citizens, to treat US as Europe’s biggest enemy in the world. Europe needs to assist in destroying US economy to both get regime change, stop further EU extortion, and setup to be in a better position to help/profit from US reconstruction after its collapse. The US agents in EU rulership positions need to be exterminated from policy influence, because EU sycophancy to US is the root cause of their stagnation.

    Russophobia and Sinophobia programming needs an awakening to see bigger enemy.

    Cutting off weapons and Boeing from Europe is the threat that should be made.






  • We should wonder if we want t be this dependant on one country for all our tech needs. I think the answer is no…

    It’s also by far the biggest market for those materials, and a massive scale industry there. The IRA did incentivize local supply chains for many materials, but the high ROI scarcity model in US, had many announced projects cancelled, and new administration’s love for fossil fuels and funding sources for tax cuts for the rich, threaten other projects. The reason projects were cancelled is that price, even after subsidy, would be horribly uncompetitive relative to China, and includes further uncompetitive processing industry requirements, that aren’t usually the same expertise as a mining operation.

    trade dependence is bad

    is something you can say only when global peace is impossible, but also when your country is the one that fully decides global peace or war. War is not a path for shared prosperity. Trade dependence can be very prosperous (PPP GDP is far more important measure than nominal). Markets usually function because sellers are not forced to hate buyers, instead of trying to usually be their friend.

    Far crazier than OP high tech industry suicide, is food and apparel. 1930s Smoot-Harley tariffs didn’t just amplify great depression, they directly led to global famine. Farming bankruptcies and low global trade means planting less, if surplus can’t be sold anywhere. No one will import avocados or apparel this week, and that has a bigger short term impact on lives.




  • future of air conditioning stocks, which it provided to clients on March 17. A 3 degree warming scenario, the analysts determined, could more than double the growth rate of the $235 billion cooling market every year, from 3 percent to 7 percent until 2030.

    This is not banks preparing for catastrophic warming. It is the stock brokerage division of banks giving their boiler room reps a “hot tip” lead.

    Banks should be worried about their fractional reserve lending (about to be deregulated to a lower fraction requirement) in housing, and the affordability issues created by tariffs, high interest rates from government debt unsustainability, and importantly insurance.

    Poor insurability of housing and farmland is incompatible with high property values. Tropical Atlantic temperatures are already extreme, and forest fires/flooding all going to intensify.



  • follow up on this… xAI appears to have raised $18B in funding rounds. But November 2024 was at $50B, December 2024 was $40B. X’s ownership of xAI, caused its interest expense on high debt levels to rise to $1B/year (debt levels approaching close to $20B estimated)

    It is a major stretch to value xAI higher than the $50B peak. Chinese open source models released have depressed overall US AI stocks, and xAI has major cash burn in implementing its model, and Musk has ever increasing brand hatred culminating in government persecution threats to anyone who could say something negative about him or his companies that becomes propaganda fuel for actual damage to his vehicles/dealerships.